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Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Bitcoin's Big If

These days it's hard going a full day without hearing news of the bitcoin exchange rate. The virtual currency is getting real world attention. It's even causing business's to start considering how to integrate bitcoin payments. Customers are displaying an increasing interest in the trending private world of cryptocurrency transactions. But some could be placing too much emphasis on the "crypto" aspect a la silk road, losing sight of the main reason for it's development in the first place. It was in response to the financial crisis that Satoshi Nakamoto (the pseudonym used by the creator or creators - no one really knows) loosed the bitcoin block chain algorithm. Bitcoin was released as an alternative currency, an inflation resistant form of electronic money free from centralized control and manipulation. You might be thinking - how can a currency which is up over 500% in value this year alone be considered inflation resistant? Good question, the theory goes something like this,... since only 21 million bitcoins will ever be mined with only 12 million having already been - that bitcoin is currently undergoing the market process of price discovery. As it's popularity and price keeps increasing, miners and others are more inclined to hold or even hoard the virtual money in expectation of even higher prices down the road. Couple that with the technical aspects of mining, such as ever increasing levels of difficulty, rising cost per mined coin all leading to a feedback loop for price appreciation. Also, it is commonly understood that the 21 million coin limit is miniscule in relation to combined world currency value and money supply with estimates approaching one hundred trillion USD. Here's the big if. If Bitcoin were to gain even a modest share of the currency markets then the value of a single coin could easily achieve price in excess of tens of thousands of dollars. Over time believers in bitcoin expect it to slowly mature and enter a state of exceptional stability. Once all the coins have been mined some 30-40 years in the future, the virtual dollar would then become a durable and predictable form of inflation resistant digital currency. On the other hand, there is the real possibility bitcoins achieve considerable success with overwhelming public support only to - in the end - suffer a fate similar to another famous peer to peer file sharing network which was ultimately downloaded into the trash bin of history - napster. 

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2 comments :

  1. China just banned Bitcoin deposits in yuan, resulting to a 50% decline to Bitcoin's value. Will Bitcoin value ever stabilize? http://www.21stcenturynews.com.au/bitcoin-values-fall-dramatically/

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  2. Hey Brendon, Bitcoin declines of 50% have occurred several times only to have the price consolidate at lower levels, build a base and then move higher. If bitcoin survives to maturity, theoretically it's price would stabilize and it would become inflation resistant. The market will determine the correct value of a bitcoin as it evolves and makes it's way through the gauntlet which lies ahead. Until such time it will remain highly speculative and volatile.

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